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Neutral
Based on the latest 13 weeks of non-commercial positioning data. ℹ️

Corn (Non-Commercial)

13-Wk Max 627,494 245,902 41,220 30,138 468,724
13-Wk Min 412,036 156,545 -104,828 -40,495 166,869
13-Wk Avg 489,960 196,900 -15,789 4,860 293,060
Report Date Long Short Change Long Change Short Net Position Rate of Change (ROC) ℹ️ Open Int.
April 29, 2025 412,036 236,607 -38,676 5,738 175,429 -20.20% 1,543,934
April 22, 2025 450,712 230,869 11,876 26,215 219,843 -6.12% 1,707,988
April 15, 2025 438,836 204,654 20,805 -40,495 234,182 35.46% 1,723,995
April 8, 2025 418,031 245,149 5,260 -753 172,882 3.60% 1,810,136
April 1, 2025 412,771 245,902 -3,364 30,138 166,869 -16.72% 1,879,992
March 25, 2025 416,135 215,764 -25,467 13,538 200,371 -16.29% 1,841,552
March 18, 2025 441,602 202,226 -7,403 21,578 239,376 -10.80% 1,819,184
March 11, 2025 449,005 180,648 -43,873 23,208 268,357 -20.00% 1,829,935
March 4, 2025 492,878 157,440 -104,828 895 335,438 -23.96% 1,849,114
February 25, 2025 597,706 156,545 -29,788 -2,225 441,161 -5.88% 1,917,072
February 18, 2025 627,494 158,770 41,220 -2,735 468,724 10.35% 2,071,614
February 11, 2025 586,274 161,505 -39,727 -2,115 424,769 -8.13% 2,026,132
February 4, 2025 626,001 163,620 8,702 -9,804 462,381 4.17% 2,019,421

Net Position (13 Weeks) - Non-Commercial

Change in Long and Short Positions (13 Weeks) - Non-Commercial

COT Interpretation for CORN

Comprehensive Guide to COT Reports for Agricultural Markets

Table of Contents

Introduction

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports are particularly valuable for agricultural commodity markets, where a complex mix of producers, processors, speculators, and index funds creates unique market dynamics. This specialized guide focuses on applying COT analysis specifically to agricultural futures markets to gain trading and hedging advantages.

Agricultural markets present distinct characteristics in COT reports due to their seasonal production cycles, weather dependencies, global supply chain factors, and the essential nature of these commodities in the food supply chain. Understanding these nuances can provide significant analytical advantages.

Agricultural COT Reports: Key Characteristics

The CFTC provides specialized report formats that are particularly relevant for agricultural markets:

  1. Supplemental COT Report

    Created specifically for agricultural commodities to address the growing influence of index traders. This report separates index traders from the traditional commercial category, providing greater visibility into true commercial hedging versus passive long-only index investment.

  2. Disaggregated COT Report

    Particularly useful for agricultural markets as it separates:

    • Producer/Merchant/Processor/User: Actual agricultural industry participants
    • Swap Dealers: Often representing index exposure
    • Managed Money: Speculative funds and commodity trading advisors
    • Other Reportables: Other large traders
    • Non-Reportable Positions: Smaller traders
  3. Combined Futures and Options Report

    Important for agricultural markets where options strategies are frequently used by producers and processors for hedging.

Agricultural Markets Covered

The COT reports cover the following major agricultural futures markets:

Grains and Oilseeds

  • Corn (CBOT)
  • Soybeans (CBOT)
  • Wheat (CBOT, KCBT, MGEX)
  • Soybean Oil (CBOT)
  • Soybean Meal (CBOT)
  • Oats (CBOT)
  • Rough Rice (CBOT)
  • Canola (ICE)

Softs

  • Cotton (ICE)
  • Coffee (ICE)
  • Sugar (ICE)
  • Cocoa (ICE)
  • Orange Juice (ICE)

Livestock

  • Live Cattle (CME)
  • Feeder Cattle (CME)
  • Lean Hogs (CME)

Dairy

  • Class III Milk (CME)

Special Considerations for Agricultural Markets

  1. Seasonality

    Agricultural COT data must be interpreted within the context of seasonal production cycles:

    • Planting Seasons: Typically see increased hedging by producers
    • Growing Seasons: Weather concerns can drive speculative activity
    • Harvest Periods: Often see peak short hedging by producers
    • Storage Periods: Commercial positions shift from producers to processors and merchants
  2. USDA Reports Impact

    Major USDA reports cause significant position adjustments:

    • Prospective Plantings (March)
    • Acreage Report (June)
    • Crop Production Reports (Monthly)
    • WASDE Reports (Monthly)
    • Grain Stocks Reports (Quarterly)
  3. Weather Sensitivity

    Weather events can drive rapid position changes:

    • Drought conditions
    • Excessive rainfall
    • Early/late frosts
    • Global weather patterns (El Niño/La Niña)
  4. Global Production Cycles

    Unlike financial markets, agricultural markets must account for different hemispheric growing seasons:

    • North American harvest vs. South American harvest
    • Northern vs. Southern Hemisphere production windows

Understanding Trader Categories in Agricultural Markets

Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Who they are: Farmers, grain elevators, food companies, feed manufacturers

Trading behavior:

  • Producers typically hedge by selling futures (short)
  • Processors typically hedge by buying futures (long)
  • Net position often reflects current point in seasonal cycle

Interpretation keys:

  • Increasing short positions ahead of harvest indicates producer hedging
  • Increasing long positions indicates processor price risk management
  • Extreme positions relative to seasonal norms may signal price turning points

Swap Dealers in Agricultural Markets

Who they are: Banks and dealers who provide commodity index exposure to clients

Trading behavior:

  • Predominantly long-biased due to index composition
  • Position changes often reflect fund flows rather than price views
  • Less responsive to short-term price movements

Interpretation keys:

  • Significant position changes may reflect institutional money flows
  • Generally less predictive for short-term price movements
  • Important for understanding overall market structure

Managed Money in Agricultural Markets

Who they are: Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), hedge funds, commodity pools

Trading behavior:

  • Typically trend-following
  • Responsive to technical signals and fundamental data
  • More volatile position changes than other categories

Interpretation keys:

  • Extreme positions often signal potential market turning points
  • Rapid position changes may precede significant price movements
  • Divergences between positions and price can be powerful signals

Seasonal Patterns in Agricultural COT Data

Corn

  • January-March: Processors often increase long positions
  • April-June: Producer short hedging increases with planting progress
  • July-August: Weather markets drive speculative positioning
  • September-November: Peak producer short hedging during harvest
  • December: Year-end position squaring

Soybeans

  • February-April: South American harvest impacts positioning
  • May-July: U.S. growing season uncertainty drives speculative activity
  • August-October: Producer hedging increases ahead of U.S. harvest
  • November-January: Processor buying often increases post-harvest

Wheat

  • March-May: Winter wheat condition reports impact positioning
  • June-August: Northern Hemisphere harvest creates heavy commercial short positioning
  • September-October: Planting intentions for new crop influence positions
  • November-February: Southern Hemisphere harvest impacts

Cotton

  • February-April: Planting intentions drive positioning
  • May-July: Growing season uncertainties
  • August-October: Harvest hedging peaks
  • November-January: Mill buying often increases

Live Cattle

Demonstrates less pronounced seasonality than crops

  • Feedlot placement cycles influence commercial hedging patterns
  • Seasonal demand patterns (grilling season, holidays) affect processor hedging

Index Fund Impact on Agricultural Markets

Understanding Index Involvement

  • Commodity indices like the S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index maintain significant agricultural exposure
  • Index funds maintain predominantly long positions with periodic rebalancing
  • The Supplemental COT Report specifically identifies index trader positions

Key Considerations

  • Index positions tend to be less responsive to short-term price movements
  • "Roll periods" when indices shift positions between contract months can create temporary price pressure
  • Index participation has grown significantly since early 2000s, altering traditional market dynamics

How to Use Index Data

  • Major changes in index positions may signal institutional asset allocation shifts
  • Divergences between index positioning and price can identify potential opportunities
  • Understanding index roll schedules helps anticipate potential market impacts

Case Studies: Major Agricultural Markets

Corn Market

Commercial Positioning: Typically net short, with seasonal variation

Key COT Signals:

  • Commercials reducing short positions during price declines often precedes rallies
  • Managed Money net position extremes frequently coincide with price turning points
  • Commercial vs. Managed Money position gaps widening signals potential reversals

Soybean Market

Commercial Positioning: Varies greatly with global supply dynamics

Key COT Signals:

  • South American harvest periods create unique positioning patterns
  • Processor long positions increasing can signal anticipated demand strength
  • Spread positions between soybeans and products (meal, oil) provide crush margin insights

Live Cattle Market

Commercial Positioning: Processors often net short, feedlots net long

Key COT Signals:

  • Pack
  • Packer short coverage often precedes price rallies
  • Extreme speculative long positions frequently signal potential tops
  • Divergences between feeder and live cattle positioning provide spread opportunities

Trading Strategies for Agricultural Markets

  1. Harvest Pressure Strategy

    Setup: Monitor producer short hedging building before/during harvest

    Entry: Look for commercial short position peaks coinciding with price lows

    Exit: When commercial shorts begin covering and prices stabilize

    Markets: Particularly effective in grains and cotton

  2. Weather Premium Fade

    Setup: Identify extreme speculative positions during weather scares

    Entry: When managed money reaches historical position extremes

    Exit: As weather concerns normalize and positions revert

    Markets: Particularly effective in growing-season grain markets

  3. Commercial Signal Strategy

    Setup: Track commercial position changes relative to price

    Entry: When commercials significantly reduce net short positions during price declines

    Exit: When commercials begin increasing short positions again as prices rise

    Markets: Works across most agricultural commodities

  4. Processor Demand Strategy

    Setup: Monitor processor long positions for signs of anticipated demand

    Entry: When processor longs increase significantly during price weakness

    Exit: When prices rise to reflect the improved demand outlook

    Markets: Particularly effective in processing crops like soybeans, cotton, and cattle

  5. Commercial/Speculator Divergence Strategy

    Setup: Identify growing gaps between commercial and speculative positioning

    Entry: When the gap reaches historical extremes

    Exit: When the gap begins to narrow and price confirms

    Markets: Applicable across all agricultural markets

Combining COT Data with Fundamental Analysis

USDA Reports

  • Compare COT positioning changes before and after major USDA reports
  • Look for confirmation or divergence between report data and position adjustments
  • Monitor commercial reaction to reports for insight into industry interpretation

Crop Progress and Condition

  • Weekly crop condition reports often drive speculative positioning
  • Commercial reaction to condition changes can provide valuable trading signals
  • Divergences between conditions and positioning may identify mispriced markets

Global Supply and Demand Factors

  • International crop production changes drive positioning in globally traded markets
  • Export sales reports influence commercial hedging activities
  • Currency movements impact relative positioning in internationally traded commodities

Integrating Seasonal Fundamentals

  • Compare current positioning to historical seasonal patterns
  • Identify when positions are abnormal for the current point in the season
  • Use seasonal tendencies to anticipate upcoming position changes

Common Pitfalls and How to Avoid Them

  1. Ignoring Seasonality

    Pitfall: Interpreting position levels without seasonal context

    Solution: Always compare current positions to historical seasonal norms

    Example: Producer short positions naturally increase during harvest, not necessarily bearish

  2. Overlooking Contract Roll Impacts

    Pitfall: Misinterpreting position changes during index roll periods

    Solution: Be aware of standard roll schedules for major indices

    Example: Apparent commercial selling during roll periods may be temporary technical flows

  3. Misunderstanding Report Categories

    Pitfall: Not recognizing the nuances between different COT report formats

    Solution: Use the Supplemental and Disaggregated reports for better clarity

    Example: Index fund positions in Legacy reports can distort true commercial hedger activity

  4. Reacting to Single-Week Changes

    Pitfall: Overemphasizing one week's position changes

    Solution: Focus on multi-week trends and significant position changes

    Example: Weather-driven temporary position adjustments vs. fundamental trend changes

  5. Neglecting Spread Positions

    Pitfall: Focusing only on outright positions, missing spread implications

    Solution: Monitor spreading activity, especially in related markets

    Example: Soybean/corn spread positions can provide insight into acreage competition

Resources for Agricultural COT Analysis

Specialized Data Services

  • AgResource Company: Provides COT analysis specific to agricultural markets
  • Hightower Report: Offers regular COT commentary for agricultural commodities
  • Brugler Marketing: Features agricultural-focused COT interpretation

Software Tools

  • Commodity Research Bureau (CRB): Offers historical COT data visualization for agricultural markets
  • DTN ProphetX: Includes agricultural COT analysis tools
  • AgriCharts: Provides specialized agricultural market data including COT information

Educational Resources

  • Agricultural Extension Services: Many offer educational materials on hedging and market analysis
  • CME Group: Provides educational content specific to agricultural markets
  • ICE Exchange: Offers resources for soft commodity trading and analysis

Government Resources

  • USDA ERS (Economic Research Service): Provides contextual market analysis
  • CFTC Agricultural Advisory Committee: Publishes recommendations and analysis
  • USDA AMS (Agricultural Marketing Service): Offers complementary market data

© 2025 - This guide is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Agricultural markets involve significant risk, and positions should be managed according to individual risk tolerance and objectives.

Market Neutral
Based on the latest 13 weeks of non-commercial positioning data.
📊 COT Sentiment Analysis Guide

This guide helps traders understand how to interpret Commitments of Traders (COT) reports to generate potential Buy, Sell, or Neutral signals using market positioning data.

🧠 How It Works
  • Recent Trend Detection: Tracks net position and rate of change (ROC) over the last 13 weeks.
  • Overbought/Oversold Check: Compares current net positions to a 1-year range using percentiles.
  • Strength Confirmation: Validates if long or short positions are dominant enough for a signal.
✅ Signal Criteria
Condition Signal
Net ↑ for 13+ weeks AND ROC ↑ for 13+ weeks AND strong long dominance Buy
Net ↓ for 13+ weeks AND ROC ↓ for 13+ weeks AND strong short dominance Sell
Net in top 20% of 1-year range AND net uptrend ≥ 3 Neutral (Overbought)
Net in bottom 20% of 1-year range AND net downtrend ≥ 3 Neutral (Oversold)
None of the above conditions met Neutral
🧭 Trader Tips
  • Trend traders: Follow Buy/Sell signals when all trend and strength conditions align.
  • Contrarian traders: Use Neutral (Overbought/Oversold) flags to anticipate reversals.
  • Swing traders: Use sentiment as a filter to increase trade confidence.
Example:
Net positions rising, strong long dominance, in top 20% of historical range.
Result: Neutral (Overbought) — uptrend may be too crowded.
  • COT data is delayed (released on Friday, based on Tuesday's positions) - it's not real-time.
  • Combine with price action, FVG, liquidity, or technical indicators for best results.
  • Use percentile filters to avoid buying at extreme highs or selling at extreme lows.

Corn Trading Strategy Based on the CFTC COT Report for Retail Traders and Market Investors

This strategy leverages the Commitments of Traders (COT) report to identify potential trading opportunities in the corn market traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBT). It's designed to be accessible for both retail traders and market investors, incorporating various risk management techniques.

I. Understanding the COT Report and its Relevance to Corn:

  • What is the COT Report? The COT report is a weekly publication by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showing the positions held by different groups of traders in the futures markets. It breaks down positions into:
    • Commercial Hedgers: Entities involved in the production, processing, or merchandising of the underlying commodity (e.g., farmers, grain elevators, food processors). They use futures to manage price risk.
    • Non-Commercial (Large Speculators): Typically, hedge funds, institutional investors, and large commodity trading advisors (CTAs) who trade futures for profit.
    • Non-Reportable Positions (Small Speculators): Smaller traders who don't meet the reporting requirements. Their positions are calculated as a residual.
  • Why Use the COT Report for Corn? Corn prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics, weather patterns, government policies, and speculative activity. The COT report can provide insights into the sentiment of key market participants, helping to anticipate potential price movements. Commercial hedgers, in particular, have a strong understanding of fundamental supply/demand factors. Large speculators can drive short-term price trends.

II. Key COT Report Metrics and Interpretations for Corn:

  1. Net Position of Commercial Hedgers:

    • Interpretation: This is often the most crucial indicator.
    • Large Net Short Position: Generally indicates commercial hedgers are anticipating lower prices. Farmers hedging future harvests are typically short. However, it could also mean strong export demand and aggressive forward sales.
    • Large Net Long Position: Suggests commercial hedgers are anticipating higher prices. This could be due to supply concerns (e.g., drought) or expected increased demand.
    • Changes in Net Position: The change in the net position is often more important than the absolute value. A rapid increase in net shorts can signal building bearishness, while a rapid increase in net longs can signal building bullishness.
    • Retail Trader Action:
      • Significant Increase in Commercial Net Shorts: Consider shorting corn futures or buying put options, especially if confirmed by other bearish indicators (e.g., adverse weather, falling prices).
      • Significant Increase in Commercial Net Longs: Consider buying corn futures or buying call options, especially if confirmed by other bullish indicators (e.g., drought, rising prices).

  2. Net Position of Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators):

    • Interpretation: Reflects speculative sentiment. They often follow trends but can also overextend themselves, leading to corrections.
    • Large Net Long Position: Indicates bullish sentiment.
    • Large Net Short Position: Indicates bearish sentiment.
    • Extreme Positions: Pay attention to extreme long or short positions by large speculators, as they can signal potential trend reversals. If speculators are heavily long, the market may be vulnerable to a sell-off. If they are heavily short, the market may be vulnerable to a short squeeze.
    • COT Index: Calculate a COT Index for Large Speculators by ranking the Net Position over a given timeframe (e.g., 3 years). A value near 100 indicates a near record long position, while a value near 0 indicates a near record short position. Extreme values suggest potential for reversal.
    • Retail Trader Action:
      • Follow the Trend (Carefully): Align your trading direction with the trend established by large speculators, but be cautious of extreme positions. Use smaller position sizes.
      • Fade Extreme Positions: Consider counter-trend trades when large speculators reach extreme long or short positions, anticipating a correction. This is a higher-risk strategy.

  3. Spread Between Commercials and Non-Commercials:

    • Interpretation: Divergences between the positions of commercial hedgers and large speculators can be significant.
    • Commercials Short, Speculators Long: This is a classic scenario. If commercials are heavily short and speculators are heavily long, the risk is that the commercials are correct about fundamentals and the speculators are overextended.
    • Commercials Long, Speculators Short: Suggests commercials anticipate higher prices, while speculators are bearish. This could lead to a short squeeze if commercials are proven correct.
    • Retail Trader Action: Trade in the direction of the Commercials. They have more fundamental insight into the corn market.

III. Combining the COT Report with Other Analysis Techniques:

  • Technical Analysis: Use technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, Fibonacci levels) to confirm signals from the COT report and identify entry and exit points. Look for confluence between COT signals and technical patterns.
  • Fundamental Analysis: Monitor weather patterns, crop reports (USDA WASDE), export data, ethanol production, and other factors that influence corn supply and demand. The COT report should complement, not replace, fundamental analysis.
  • Seasonal Patterns: Corn prices often exhibit seasonal trends, influenced by planting, growing, and harvest cycles. Consider seasonal tendencies in conjunction with the COT report.

IV. Trading Strategy Examples:

  • Example 1: Bullish Scenario
    • COT Report: Commercial hedgers are rapidly increasing their net long positions. Large speculators are also long, but not at an extreme level.
    • Technical Analysis: Price is breaking above a key resistance level, with a positive momentum indicator (e.g., MACD crossover).
    • Fundamental Analysis: Drought conditions are threatening the corn crop in key growing regions.
    • Trade: Buy corn futures or call options. Set a stop-loss order below the breakout level.
  • Example 2: Bearish Scenario
    • COT Report: Commercial hedgers are rapidly increasing their net short positions. Large speculators are heavily long, potentially overextended.
    • Technical Analysis: Price is failing to break above a key resistance level and showing signs of exhaustion.
    • Fundamental Analysis: Favorable weather conditions are expected to lead to a bumper corn crop.
    • Trade: Sell corn futures or buy put options. Set a stop-loss order above the resistance level.
  • Example 3: Commercials vs. Speculators (Short Squeeze Potential)
    • COT Report: Commercials are holding large net long positions, while large speculators are holding large net short positions.
    • Technical Analysis: The price is consolidating and approaching a key resistance level.
    • Fundamental Analysis: Unexpected export demand is announced, tightening supply.
    • Trade: Consider a long position, as the potential for a short squeeze exists if speculators are forced to cover their positions.

V. Risk Management:

  • Position Sizing: Never risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital on any single trade. Adjust your position size accordingly.
  • Stop-Loss Orders: Always use stop-loss orders to limit your potential losses. Place stops based on technical levels or volatility.
  • Diversification: Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify your trading portfolio across different markets and asset classes.
  • Understanding Leverage: Corn futures are highly leveraged. Be aware of the risks associated with leverage and manage your margin requirements carefully.
  • Emotional Control: Avoid trading based on emotions. Stick to your trading plan and don't let fear or greed influence your decisions.
  • Options Strategies: When using options, carefully consider the potential risks and rewards of different strategies (e.g., buying calls/puts, selling covered calls, using spreads).
  • Hedging (Advanced): If you are a producer or consumer of corn, you can use corn futures or options to hedge your price risk. Consult with a qualified advisor if you are unfamiliar with hedging techniques.

VI. Data Sources and Resources:

  • CFTC Website: cftc.gov (for accessing the COT report)
  • USDA WASDE Report: usda.gov (for crop production and supply/demand data)
  • Trading Platforms: Platforms like Thinkorswim, Interactive Brokers, and others provide access to futures trading and charting tools.
  • News Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, and other financial news sources provide information on corn market developments.

VII. Important Considerations:

  • Lag Effect: The COT report is released on Fridays and reflects positions as of the previous Tuesday. Market conditions can change significantly between Tuesday and Friday.
  • Data Revisions: The CFTC may revise the COT report data, so it's important to check for any updates.
  • Market Volatility: Corn prices can be highly volatile, especially during periods of weather uncertainty or geopolitical events.
  • No Guarantees: The COT report is just one tool among many. It does not guarantee trading success.

VIII. Ongoing Learning and Adaptation:

  • Continuously monitor the corn market, the COT report, and other relevant information.
  • Backtest your trading strategies to evaluate their performance.
  • Adjust your strategy as market conditions change.
  • Consider seeking guidance from experienced commodity traders or financial advisors.

Disclaimer: This trading strategy is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.