Back to COT Dashboard
Market Sentiment
Buy
Based on the latest 13 weeks of non-commercial positioning data. ℹ️

CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE (Non-Commercial)

13-Wk Max 6,725 2,013 262 586 5,744
13-Wk Min 4,109 838 -648 -672 3,069
13-Wk Avg 5,508 1,470 -196 -17 4,038
Report Date Long Short Change Long Change Short Net Position Rate of Change (ROC) ℹ️ Open Int.
April 29, 2025 4,371 1,185 262 164 3,186 3.17% 8,658
April 22, 2025 4,109 1,021 -507 -234 3,088 -8.12% 8,767
April 15, 2025 4,616 1,255 -380 -672 3,361 9.51% 10,079
April 8, 2025 4,996 1,927 -155 406 3,069 -15.45% 10,156
April 1, 2025 5,151 1,521 -93 -492 3,630 12.35% 10,030
March 25, 2025 5,244 2,013 19 63 3,231 -1.34% 10,218
March 18, 2025 5,225 1,950 -648 178 3,275 -20.14% 10,342
March 11, 2025 5,873 1,772 -208 95 4,101 -6.88% 10,932
March 4, 2025 6,081 1,677 -210 45 4,404 -5.47% 11,123
February 25, 2025 6,291 1,632 -50 586 4,659 -12.01% 11,282
February 18, 2025 6,341 1,046 -241 208 5,295 -7.82% 11,648
February 11, 2025 6,582 838 -143 -441 5,744 5.47% 12,065
February 4, 2025 6,725 1,279 -190 -130 5,446 -1.09% 11,401

Net Position (13 Weeks) - Non-Commercial

Change in Long and Short Positions (13 Weeks) - Non-Commercial

COT Interpretation for FROZEN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE

Comprehensive Guide to COT Reports for Agricultural Markets

Table of Contents

Introduction

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports are particularly valuable for agricultural commodity markets, where a complex mix of producers, processors, speculators, and index funds creates unique market dynamics. This specialized guide focuses on applying COT analysis specifically to agricultural futures markets to gain trading and hedging advantages.

Agricultural markets present distinct characteristics in COT reports due to their seasonal production cycles, weather dependencies, global supply chain factors, and the essential nature of these commodities in the food supply chain. Understanding these nuances can provide significant analytical advantages.

Agricultural COT Reports: Key Characteristics

The CFTC provides specialized report formats that are particularly relevant for agricultural markets:

  1. Supplemental COT Report

    Created specifically for agricultural commodities to address the growing influence of index traders. This report separates index traders from the traditional commercial category, providing greater visibility into true commercial hedging versus passive long-only index investment.

  2. Disaggregated COT Report

    Particularly useful for agricultural markets as it separates:

    • Producer/Merchant/Processor/User: Actual agricultural industry participants
    • Swap Dealers: Often representing index exposure
    • Managed Money: Speculative funds and commodity trading advisors
    • Other Reportables: Other large traders
    • Non-Reportable Positions: Smaller traders
  3. Combined Futures and Options Report

    Important for agricultural markets where options strategies are frequently used by producers and processors for hedging.

Agricultural Markets Covered

The COT reports cover the following major agricultural futures markets:

Grains and Oilseeds

  • Corn (CBOT)
  • Soybeans (CBOT)
  • Wheat (CBOT, KCBT, MGEX)
  • Soybean Oil (CBOT)
  • Soybean Meal (CBOT)
  • Oats (CBOT)
  • Rough Rice (CBOT)
  • Canola (ICE)

Softs

  • Cotton (ICE)
  • Coffee (ICE)
  • Sugar (ICE)
  • Cocoa (ICE)
  • Orange Juice (ICE)

Livestock

  • Live Cattle (CME)
  • Feeder Cattle (CME)
  • Lean Hogs (CME)

Dairy

  • Class III Milk (CME)

Special Considerations for Agricultural Markets

  1. Seasonality

    Agricultural COT data must be interpreted within the context of seasonal production cycles:

    • Planting Seasons: Typically see increased hedging by producers
    • Growing Seasons: Weather concerns can drive speculative activity
    • Harvest Periods: Often see peak short hedging by producers
    • Storage Periods: Commercial positions shift from producers to processors and merchants
  2. USDA Reports Impact

    Major USDA reports cause significant position adjustments:

    • Prospective Plantings (March)
    • Acreage Report (June)
    • Crop Production Reports (Monthly)
    • WASDE Reports (Monthly)
    • Grain Stocks Reports (Quarterly)
  3. Weather Sensitivity

    Weather events can drive rapid position changes:

    • Drought conditions
    • Excessive rainfall
    • Early/late frosts
    • Global weather patterns (El Niño/La Niña)
  4. Global Production Cycles

    Unlike financial markets, agricultural markets must account for different hemispheric growing seasons:

    • North American harvest vs. South American harvest
    • Northern vs. Southern Hemisphere production windows

Understanding Trader Categories in Agricultural Markets

Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Who they are: Farmers, grain elevators, food companies, feed manufacturers

Trading behavior:

  • Producers typically hedge by selling futures (short)
  • Processors typically hedge by buying futures (long)
  • Net position often reflects current point in seasonal cycle

Interpretation keys:

  • Increasing short positions ahead of harvest indicates producer hedging
  • Increasing long positions indicates processor price risk management
  • Extreme positions relative to seasonal norms may signal price turning points

Swap Dealers in Agricultural Markets

Who they are: Banks and dealers who provide commodity index exposure to clients

Trading behavior:

  • Predominantly long-biased due to index composition
  • Position changes often reflect fund flows rather than price views
  • Less responsive to short-term price movements

Interpretation keys:

  • Significant position changes may reflect institutional money flows
  • Generally less predictive for short-term price movements
  • Important for understanding overall market structure

Managed Money in Agricultural Markets

Who they are: Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), hedge funds, commodity pools

Trading behavior:

  • Typically trend-following
  • Responsive to technical signals and fundamental data
  • More volatile position changes than other categories

Interpretation keys:

  • Extreme positions often signal potential market turning points
  • Rapid position changes may precede significant price movements
  • Divergences between positions and price can be powerful signals

Seasonal Patterns in Agricultural COT Data

Corn

  • January-March: Processors often increase long positions
  • April-June: Producer short hedging increases with planting progress
  • July-August: Weather markets drive speculative positioning
  • September-November: Peak producer short hedging during harvest
  • December: Year-end position squaring

Soybeans

  • February-April: South American harvest impacts positioning
  • May-July: U.S. growing season uncertainty drives speculative activity
  • August-October: Producer hedging increases ahead of U.S. harvest
  • November-January: Processor buying often increases post-harvest

Wheat

  • March-May: Winter wheat condition reports impact positioning
  • June-August: Northern Hemisphere harvest creates heavy commercial short positioning
  • September-October: Planting intentions for new crop influence positions
  • November-February: Southern Hemisphere harvest impacts

Cotton

  • February-April: Planting intentions drive positioning
  • May-July: Growing season uncertainties
  • August-October: Harvest hedging peaks
  • November-January: Mill buying often increases

Live Cattle

Demonstrates less pronounced seasonality than crops

  • Feedlot placement cycles influence commercial hedging patterns
  • Seasonal demand patterns (grilling season, holidays) affect processor hedging

Index Fund Impact on Agricultural Markets

Understanding Index Involvement

  • Commodity indices like the S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index maintain significant agricultural exposure
  • Index funds maintain predominantly long positions with periodic rebalancing
  • The Supplemental COT Report specifically identifies index trader positions

Key Considerations

  • Index positions tend to be less responsive to short-term price movements
  • "Roll periods" when indices shift positions between contract months can create temporary price pressure
  • Index participation has grown significantly since early 2000s, altering traditional market dynamics

How to Use Index Data

  • Major changes in index positions may signal institutional asset allocation shifts
  • Divergences between index positioning and price can identify potential opportunities
  • Understanding index roll schedules helps anticipate potential market impacts

Case Studies: Major Agricultural Markets

Corn Market

Commercial Positioning: Typically net short, with seasonal variation

Key COT Signals:

  • Commercials reducing short positions during price declines often precedes rallies
  • Managed Money net position extremes frequently coincide with price turning points
  • Commercial vs. Managed Money position gaps widening signals potential reversals

Soybean Market

Commercial Positioning: Varies greatly with global supply dynamics

Key COT Signals:

  • South American harvest periods create unique positioning patterns
  • Processor long positions increasing can signal anticipated demand strength
  • Spread positions between soybeans and products (meal, oil) provide crush margin insights

Live Cattle Market

Commercial Positioning: Processors often net short, feedlots net long

Key COT Signals:

  • Pack
  • Packer short coverage often precedes price rallies
  • Extreme speculative long positions frequently signal potential tops
  • Divergences between feeder and live cattle positioning provide spread opportunities

Trading Strategies for Agricultural Markets

  1. Harvest Pressure Strategy

    Setup: Monitor producer short hedging building before/during harvest

    Entry: Look for commercial short position peaks coinciding with price lows

    Exit: When commercial shorts begin covering and prices stabilize

    Markets: Particularly effective in grains and cotton

  2. Weather Premium Fade

    Setup: Identify extreme speculative positions during weather scares

    Entry: When managed money reaches historical position extremes

    Exit: As weather concerns normalize and positions revert

    Markets: Particularly effective in growing-season grain markets

  3. Commercial Signal Strategy

    Setup: Track commercial position changes relative to price

    Entry: When commercials significantly reduce net short positions during price declines

    Exit: When commercials begin increasing short positions again as prices rise

    Markets: Works across most agricultural commodities

  4. Processor Demand Strategy

    Setup: Monitor processor long positions for signs of anticipated demand

    Entry: When processor longs increase significantly during price weakness

    Exit: When prices rise to reflect the improved demand outlook

    Markets: Particularly effective in processing crops like soybeans, cotton, and cattle

  5. Commercial/Speculator Divergence Strategy

    Setup: Identify growing gaps between commercial and speculative positioning

    Entry: When the gap reaches historical extremes

    Exit: When the gap begins to narrow and price confirms

    Markets: Applicable across all agricultural markets

Combining COT Data with Fundamental Analysis

USDA Reports

  • Compare COT positioning changes before and after major USDA reports
  • Look for confirmation or divergence between report data and position adjustments
  • Monitor commercial reaction to reports for insight into industry interpretation

Crop Progress and Condition

  • Weekly crop condition reports often drive speculative positioning
  • Commercial reaction to condition changes can provide valuable trading signals
  • Divergences between conditions and positioning may identify mispriced markets

Global Supply and Demand Factors

  • International crop production changes drive positioning in globally traded markets
  • Export sales reports influence commercial hedging activities
  • Currency movements impact relative positioning in internationally traded commodities

Integrating Seasonal Fundamentals

  • Compare current positioning to historical seasonal patterns
  • Identify when positions are abnormal for the current point in the season
  • Use seasonal tendencies to anticipate upcoming position changes

Common Pitfalls and How to Avoid Them

  1. Ignoring Seasonality

    Pitfall: Interpreting position levels without seasonal context

    Solution: Always compare current positions to historical seasonal norms

    Example: Producer short positions naturally increase during harvest, not necessarily bearish

  2. Overlooking Contract Roll Impacts

    Pitfall: Misinterpreting position changes during index roll periods

    Solution: Be aware of standard roll schedules for major indices

    Example: Apparent commercial selling during roll periods may be temporary technical flows

  3. Misunderstanding Report Categories

    Pitfall: Not recognizing the nuances between different COT report formats

    Solution: Use the Supplemental and Disaggregated reports for better clarity

    Example: Index fund positions in Legacy reports can distort true commercial hedger activity

  4. Reacting to Single-Week Changes

    Pitfall: Overemphasizing one week's position changes

    Solution: Focus on multi-week trends and significant position changes

    Example: Weather-driven temporary position adjustments vs. fundamental trend changes

  5. Neglecting Spread Positions

    Pitfall: Focusing only on outright positions, missing spread implications

    Solution: Monitor spreading activity, especially in related markets

    Example: Soybean/corn spread positions can provide insight into acreage competition

Resources for Agricultural COT Analysis

Specialized Data Services

  • AgResource Company: Provides COT analysis specific to agricultural markets
  • Hightower Report: Offers regular COT commentary for agricultural commodities
  • Brugler Marketing: Features agricultural-focused COT interpretation

Software Tools

  • Commodity Research Bureau (CRB): Offers historical COT data visualization for agricultural markets
  • DTN ProphetX: Includes agricultural COT analysis tools
  • AgriCharts: Provides specialized agricultural market data including COT information

Educational Resources

  • Agricultural Extension Services: Many offer educational materials on hedging and market analysis
  • CME Group: Provides educational content specific to agricultural markets
  • ICE Exchange: Offers resources for soft commodity trading and analysis

Government Resources

  • USDA ERS (Economic Research Service): Provides contextual market analysis
  • CFTC Agricultural Advisory Committee: Publishes recommendations and analysis
  • USDA AMS (Agricultural Marketing Service): Offers complementary market data

© 2025 - This guide is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Agricultural markets involve significant risk, and positions should be managed according to individual risk tolerance and objectives.

Market Buy
Based on the latest 13 weeks of non-commercial positioning data.
📊 COT Sentiment Analysis Guide

This guide helps traders understand how to interpret Commitments of Traders (COT) reports to generate potential Buy, Sell, or Neutral signals using market positioning data.

🧠 How It Works
  • Recent Trend Detection: Tracks net position and rate of change (ROC) over the last 13 weeks.
  • Overbought/Oversold Check: Compares current net positions to a 1-year range using percentiles.
  • Strength Confirmation: Validates if long or short positions are dominant enough for a signal.
✅ Signal Criteria
Condition Signal
Net ↑ for 13+ weeks AND ROC ↑ for 13+ weeks AND strong long dominance Buy
Net ↓ for 13+ weeks AND ROC ↓ for 13+ weeks AND strong short dominance Sell
Net in top 20% of 1-year range AND net uptrend ≥ 3 Neutral (Overbought)
Net in bottom 20% of 1-year range AND net downtrend ≥ 3 Neutral (Oversold)
None of the above conditions met Neutral
🧭 Trader Tips
  • Trend traders: Follow Buy/Sell signals when all trend and strength conditions align.
  • Contrarian traders: Use Neutral (Overbought/Oversold) flags to anticipate reversals.
  • Swing traders: Use sentiment as a filter to increase trade confidence.
Example:
Net positions rising, strong long dominance, in top 20% of historical range.
Result: Neutral (Overbought) — uptrend may be too crowded.
  • COT data is delayed (released on Friday, based on Tuesday's positions) - it's not real-time.
  • Combine with price action, FVG, liquidity, or technical indicators for best results.
  • Use percentile filters to avoid buying at extreme highs or selling at extreme lows.

Trading Strategy for Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) Based on the COT Report

This strategy outlines how a retail trader or market investor can leverage the Commitment of Traders (COT) report to inform their trading decisions in Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) futures contracts.

Understanding the COT Report

The COT report, published weekly by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), details the positions held by different categories of traders in futures markets. For FCOJ, the key groups are:

  • Commercials (Hedgers): These are producers (e.g., orange growers) and processors (e.g., juice manufacturers) who use the futures market to hedge their price risk.
  • Non-Commercials (Large Speculators): These are large investors, like hedge funds and commodity trading advisors (CTAs), who trade futures for profit.
  • Non-Reportable Positions (Small Speculators): These are smaller traders whose positions are too small to be individually reported. Their positions are generally inferred by subtracting the other categories from the total open interest.

Key Principles of COT-Based Trading

  • Follow the Commercials: Commercials are generally considered to be the most informed traders, as they have intimate knowledge of the underlying market fundamentals. Their hedging activities often reflect their expectations for future price movements.
  • Monitor Speculator Sentiment: Large speculators can exert significant price pressure, especially in trending markets. Tracking their positioning can provide insights into the prevailing market sentiment.
  • Watch for Extremes: Significant shifts in positioning, particularly at extremes (e.g., commercials heavily short and speculators heavily long), can signal potential trend reversals.
  • Consider the Trend: The COT report is most effective when used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis. Align your COT-based signals with the prevailing trend.

Data Sources

  • CFTC Website: The official source for the COT report: www.cftc.gov

Trading Strategy

This strategy combines COT data analysis with basic technical analysis for confirmation. The strategy is presented with a series of steps:

1. Data Acquisition and Preparation:

  • Download the Legacy COT Report: The Legacy report provides the most comprehensive overview of commercial and non-commercial positions.
  • Track Key Data: Focus on the following data points:
    • Net positions of Commercials (Hedgers)
    • Net positions of Non-Commercials (Large Speculators)
    • Open Interest (Total number of outstanding contracts)

2. COT Data Analysis:

  • Net Position Analysis:
    • Commercials Net Short: If commercials are heavily net short, it suggests they expect prices to decline (hedging against future production). Consider a bearish bias.
    • Commercials Net Long: If commercials are heavily net long, it suggests they expect prices to rise (hedging against future purchases). Consider a bullish bias.
    • Non-Commercials Net Short: If speculators are heavily net short, it suggests they expect prices to decline. Consider a bearish bias
    • Non-Commercials Net Long: If speculators are heavily net long, it suggests they expect prices to rise. Consider a bullish bias.
  • Historical Context: Compare current net positions to historical levels. Is the current positioning near a historical extreme? Extreme readings can signal overbought or oversold conditions.
  • Changes in Positioning: Pay attention to the week-over-week changes in net positions. A sudden and significant shift in either commercial or speculator positioning can be a powerful signal.

3. Technical Analysis Confirmation:

  • Identify the Trend: Use trendlines, moving averages (e.g., 50-day, 200-day), or other technical indicators to determine the prevailing trend.
  • Support and Resistance Levels: Identify key support and resistance levels to determine potential entry and exit points.
  • Chart Patterns: Look for common chart patterns (e.g., head and shoulders, double tops/bottoms) that can confirm a trend reversal or continuation.
  • Momentum Indicators: Use momentum indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) or MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to gauge the strength of the trend and identify overbought or oversold conditions.

4. Trading Signals:

  • Bullish Signal:
    • Commercials are heavily net long or are significantly decreasing their net short positions.
    • Non-Commercials are heavily net long or are significantly increasing their net long positions.
    • The market is in an uptrend, and price is near a support level.
    • Momentum indicators are not overbought.
  • Bearish Signal:
    • Commercials are heavily net short or are significantly decreasing their net long positions.
    • Non-Commercials are heavily net short or are significantly increasing their net short positions.
    • The market is in a downtrend, and price is near a resistance level.
    • Momentum indicators are not oversold.

5. Entry and Exit Strategy:

  • Entry:
    • Enter a long position on a bullish signal after price bounces off a support level.
    • Enter a short position on a bearish signal after price reverses from a resistance level.
  • Stop-Loss:
    • Place a stop-loss order below the recent swing low for long positions.
    • Place a stop-loss order above the recent swing high for short positions.
  • Profit Target:
    • Set a profit target at a predetermined level based on risk-reward ratio (e.g., 2:1 or 3:1). Consider previous resistance levels for long positions and previous support levels for short positions.
    • Consider using trailing stops to lock in profits as the price moves in your favor.

6. Risk Management:

  • Position Sizing: Never risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital on any single trade.
  • Diversification: Do not put all your capital into FCOJ futures. Diversify your portfolio across different commodities and asset classes.
  • Discipline: Stick to your trading plan and avoid emotional decision-making.

7. Fundamental Analysis (Supplementary)

  • Weather Conditions: Monitor weather conditions in major orange-growing regions (e.g., Florida, Brazil). Freezes and hurricanes can significantly impact orange production and prices.
  • Citrus Crop Reports: Follow USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) citrus crop reports, which provide estimates of orange production and supply.
  • Demand Factors: Consider factors affecting orange juice demand, such as consumer preferences, health trends, and economic conditions.

Example Scenario

Let's say you're tracking FCOJ futures.

  • COT Report: The latest COT report shows that Commercials are at a historical high in their net short positions, indicating a strong expectation of lower prices.
  • Technical Analysis: The price has been trending downwards, and is approaching a key resistance level. The RSI is not yet oversold.
  • Trading Decision: This confluence of bearish COT data and technical analysis suggests a potential shorting opportunity. You would enter a short position near the resistance level with a stop-loss order placed above it, and a profit target based on a predetermined risk-reward ratio.

Important Considerations and Cautions:

  • Lagging Indicator: The COT report is released with a delay (typically a few days after the reporting period). This means the data reflects past positioning and may not perfectly reflect current market sentiment.
  • Correlation vs. Causation: The COT report reveals correlations between trader positions and price movements, but it does not necessarily prove causation. Other factors can influence prices.
  • Market Manipulation: Large players may attempt to manipulate prices, making the COT report less reliable in certain situations.
  • Volatility: FCOJ futures can be volatile, so it is essential to manage risk carefully.
  • Beginner Caution: If you're new to futures trading, start with a demo account to practice your strategy before risking real capital.

Disclaimer: This is a sample trading strategy for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and should not be interpreted as a guarantee of profits. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.